from a political perspective, I dont have a problem voting for a Mormon like Mitt.

[alanmolstad]

Originally Posted by alanmolstad

Mitt's goal in NH?

To win, and win big!

Mitt needs to totally destroy all the rest of the field in NH.
This will cause all the sources of money to all the other people left in the race to dry up.

This would also give Mitt a very good chance to go into SC and win there too.

................"

So to make this as painless as he can, Mitt needs to win in NH next week, and win big.

Mitt needs to win big to be able to sweep into Sc and have that State not become a problem for him.

right now, Rick is just praying to get enough money to make a "last stand " in SC.
Rick known that his only real chance of overcoming Mitt's lead in this election is to beat Mitt in SC.

If Rick can win SC he can force this game into extras innings and perhaps all the way to the convention.

So this is why Mitt really needs to destroy the whole rest of the field in NH.
A big victory for Mitt in NH next week will be the signal that he is unstoppable, and that any money given to the other guy is a pointless.

I wrote the above what seems like a year ago, but was really just last week...LOL

My idea at the time is that Mitt needed to win big to stop Rick, and that seems to have went just as I was talking about.

Rick's downfall came in the last debate that happened after I wrote the above quote, and going out of that debate Rick lost his position in the race to Jon and Paul.

Jon and Paul came out of the last debate on fire, and it really did spark their supporters to get out their vote.

At this point I have projected that this outcome for Mitt and near 40% will cause all the money to suddenly dry up for all the people in the race.
Republicans dont like to bet on a lame horse, and right now the field looks full of horses that dont have a chance.

[alanmolstad]

Originally Posted by alanmolstad

In a very real way, Rick's "Last Stand" is going to be SC.
That is the only chance Rick has in this election...
Does Rick have to win in SC?.....yes

On a side note...even if Rick does lose in SC, he needs to yet make a strong showing to force Mitt to late pick him as the VP.

.

What would have to happen right now is for people to cut a few deals and get others to drop out of the race before SC.

Rick has positioned himself to really be the go-to guy for Mitt to pick if he needs a VP that can draw the conservatives.
I think that over the last few days when it was clear that Rick was sinking fast in the polls that Rick started to change his direction, and started to act like a guy applying for the VP ***.

I believe in the next few days Rick will receive a call from Mitt about dropping out and swinging his supporters over to Mitt.

This morning I find that Ron Paul is already demanding that everyone that finished lower than he did drop out.....
So that part of my projections going out of NH have proved true.

But as I write this on the morning after the NH primary so far none have agreed to drop out of the race.

Someone has to drop out in the next few days...

Right now the pack of lower names in the race are all pinning their last hope on SC and its silly for all of them to try to make their "Last Stand" there...

Too many names to vote for in SC make it look like a bunch of fools all stuck in a doorway when they all tried to go though at the same time...LOL

The field has to get smaller in the next few days....

I expect Perry to drop out in a few hours.
I expect Rick and Newt to spend the rest of this week attempting to justify their going on with the lower number coming out of NH....

However I also expect both Newt and Rick to run out of money in the next week.
I have read on-line that both Rick and Newt saved a lot of their remaining cash to spend in one final shot in SC....and this will be tempting for both of them to do.

However I also expect that both Jon Huntsman and Ron Paul will be very direct both on the phone and in speeches over the next few days that Rick and Newt should drop out...


we shall see....

[alanmolstad]

Newt ......Newt on the other hand seems aimed at doing a little pay-back before he drops out.

[BigJulie]

Newt...well, Newt in his anger has decided to become a democrat and portray "business" as the enemy.

Newt is destroying his last thread of reputation in the Republican world and I wonder if he will then swing to the other side in name as well.

[alanmolstad]

One thing you have to say for Newt....

Newt does know how to live off the land in the political field.

All of the attention in the lest few days before NH voted was all centered around Newt's attacks against Mitt.

I watched CNN before the vote and the only time they showed a clip of Mitt is when he was responding to Newt's words.

One thing for sure, Newt knows how to counter-punch.



However in the real world...
In the real world Newt is getting a lot of calls to drop out of the race today.
What would help Newt get out is if there was someone else that Newt could stand by and fully support. The trouble is that right now that's a lot to ask of anyone.

Mitt wants Newt to stay in the race until after SC votes next week. But Ron Paul wants Newt out so bad he may be tempted to say what he needs to say to get Newt to step aside.

The weird thing I have noticed is that Perry and Bachman have not been pushed to endorse anyone yet.
I felt sure that both of them would try to play their only card that have left before the others start to get out.

we shall see....

Now today i read that Newt is going to make an appearence with a Dem at some stort of "houseing" function.

I think this has all the makings of a truly big media event....perhaps the biggest media event of the election so far.

By sending this message, Newt is actually applying to become the voice of the "Occupy Movement" should Mitt get elected.
We shall have to see how this works out.
But I think Newt sees the handwriting on the wall, and knows that the "Occupy movement" was kept in check only because the big money behind it were all Dems, and that if Mitt gets into the White House the chains will come off that dog.

I think Newt thinks it will be a lot better to be the most well known voice to speak out against a President Mitt, rather than getting the call only a few times to come on TV to defend Mitt's programs.

[BigJulie]

LOL--yes, Newt is for business until he is against it. Well, I guess I like how you clarify that Newt's pro-business stance is the business that will make him the most money.

[alanmolstad]

http://www.examiner.com/pet-photogra...did-what-photo

[alanmolstad]

any news today ?

[BigJulie]

From Business Week

"Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, another Romney rival, was also critical of Gingrich at an event last night in West Columbia, South Carolina. American business has suffered because of “hostile” rhetoric, Santorum said.

“It’s bad enough for Barack Obama to blame folks in business for causing problems in this country. It’s a whole other thing for Republicans to join in on it,” he said."

Okay---so, I don't like all the earmarks this guy has had---but overall, I like him. He seems like he has a head on his shoulder. I hope he is considered for VP---or give him a few more years experience both in leadership and in elections, if Romney doesn't get it this year--I think he may be the one we are seeing in the future.

I hope Ron Paul piddles out. He has a lot of support from younger voters, but I think anyone with experience (age) realizes that he is more radical than this country needs.

[alanmolstad]

Originally Posted by BigJulie

From Business Week

"Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum .....

well.....yes and no....



This is not actually Rick's idea.
Rick more or less stayed out of this issue until someone else came in and really took control of the topic for conservatives.
and.....the person who actually is calling the signals is Rush.....

If you have paying attention to this issue over the last week you have known how Rush took on Newt, and how Newt is backing away from his own statements today.

This points us to just how much sway Rush has at this point in the election.

[alanmolstad]

Originally Posted by BigJulie

Okay---so, I don't like all the earmarks this guy has had---.....

When my home State of North Dakota sends someone to Washington DC, we expect them to stick up for our little State, and do what he needs to do to bring back to us the money we need to do anything around here.

The over-all correctness of earmarks is a question that Congress can address.
But because each State is so much bigger than my own, I expect the people we send to Washington get real good , real fast at cutting deals, horse -trading, and doing whatever they have to do to bring something back home.


So when I hear a conservative all upset over some 'earmarks" I dont actually consider that a real problem....

In my whole State there are fewer people than in most cities in other States..
Without earmarks, we would have few tar roads here....

[alanmolstad]

Originally Posted by BigJulie

I hope Ron Paul piddles out..

Everyone but Mitt is in agreement with you on that!

They all want Ron Paul to pack up and go back home.
All except for Mitt,,,

Paul is helping Mitt each day he is still in the lineup.

[BigJulie]

Originally Posted by alanmolstad

When my home State of North Dakota sends someone to Washington DC, we expect them to stick up for our little State, and do what he needs to do to bring back to us the money we need to do anything around here.

The over-all correctness of earmarks is a question that Congress can address.
But because each State is so much bigger than my own, I expect the people we send to Washington get real good , real fast at cutting deals, horse -trading, and doing whatever they have to do to bring something back home.


So when I hear a conservative all upset over some 'earmarks" I dont actually consider that a real problem....

In my whole State there are fewer people than in most cities in other States..
Without earmarks, we would have few tar roads here....

I see your point.

In my state, where I live, our mall is way off the main highway. I think---ugh, what poor planning. You see, the highway is part of the federal system while the city roads are not. What do we get? A lot of people driving on the highway, then onto the city road (quite a ways) to get to the mall. I have often thought---who in the right mind would allow someone to build where it is going to cost the city so much in road maintanance (as the road to the mall is very trafficked).

[BigJulie]

Originally Posted by alanmolstad

Everyone but Mitt is in agreement with you on that!

They all want Ron Paul to pack up and go back home.
All except for Mitt,,,

Paul is helping Mitt each day he is still in the lineup.

So, you see Ron Paul is doing for Mitt Romney what Ross Perot did for Clinton? Interesting point.

[alanmolstad]

I think the following...

Going into Iowa Newt was all set to come in a nice 2nd place.

Then Mitt's attack dogs got into the fight, and newt got hurt bad.

There is one thing to keep in mind however....

Newt's ****ed...and Newt is better at this game than Mitt's attack dogs.


Newt clearly is out to do as much damage to Mitt as he can...
and, more importantly, if Mitt actually beats Obama in the general election, Newt is going to position himself in such a way as to be both Republican - AND - anti-Mitt.......

This would get Newt invited to every talk show for the next 4 years...
Newt would not have to defend Mitt at all....
That is the real beauty of this plan!
Remember, for most of the time when the President comes out with a new plan the talk shows in Sunday morning will invite one Republican and one Dem to debate the merits of the President's plan.

Newt wants to mess that system up ....

I think Newt wants to be both a highly respected Republican who carries the flag for the conservatives AND an anti-Mitt speaker as well.

The best of both worlds....

[BigJulie]

Originally Posted by alanmolstad

I think the following...

Going into Iowa Newt was all set to come in a nice 2nd place.

Then Mitt's attack dogs got into the fight, and newt got hurt bad.

There is one thing to keep in mind however....

Newt's ****ed...and Newt is better at this game than Mitt's attack dogs.


Newt clearly is out to do as much damage to Mitt as he can...
and, more importantly, if Mitt actually beats Obama in the general election, Newt is going to position himself in such a way as to be both Republican - AND - anti-Mitt.......

This would get Newt invited to every talk show for the next 4 years...
Newt would not have to defend Mitt at all....
That is the real beauty of this plan!
Remember, for most of the time when the President comes out with a new plan the talk shows in Sunday morning will invite one Republican and one Dem to debate the merits of the President's plan.

Newt wants to mess that system up ....

I think Newt wants to be both a highly respected Republican who carries the flag for the conservatives AND an anti-Mitt speaker as well.

The best of both worlds....

Yes, that is the problem with Newt---he seems to care more about himself then the country....when push comes to shove, ultimately, he serves Newt.

Here is an article worth reading:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterfer...at-depression/

Here is a quote from it...

"Most people do not know that already enacted in current law for 2013 are increases in the top tax rates of virtually every major federal tax. That is because the tax increases of Obamacare become effective that year, and the Bush tax cuts expire, which Obama has refused to renew for singles reporting income over $200,000 per year, or couples reporting over $250,000 per year (in other words, the nation’s small businesses, *** creators and investors, in plain English)....

As a result, if the Bush tax cuts just expire for these upper income taxpayers, along with the Obamacare taxes, in 2013 the top two income tax rates will jump nearly 20%, the capital gains tax rate will soar by nearly 60%, the tax on corporate dividends will nearly triple, and the Medicare payroll tax will leap by 62% for those disfavored taxpayers.

This is on top of the U.S. corporate income tax rate, which is virtually the highest in the industrialized world. The federal rate is 35%, with state corporate rates taking it close to 40% on average. But even Communist China has a 25% rate. The average rate in the social welfare states of the European Union is less than that. Formerly socialist Canada has a 16.5% rate going down to 15% next year.

These U.S. corporate tax rates leave American companies uncompe***ive in the global economy. Yet under President Obama there is no relief in sight. Instead, he has spent the past year barnstorming the country calling for still further tax increases on American business, large and small, investors, and *** creators....

In addition, the Obama administration is in the process of imposing a blizzard of new regulatory costs and barriers that will be building to a crescendo by 2013 as well. Academic studies estimate the total costs of regulation in the economy to be rapidly rising towards $2 trillion per year, or $8,000 per employee. That is close to 10 times the corporate income tax burden, and double the individual income tax. When the resulting effects on the economy are considered, the total losses due to regulatory burdens may total $3 trillion, or one fifth of our entire economy."


This article notes that the recession was officially ended in June of 2009, but that we have seen the lack of growth we have because of this administrations failed policy.

I guess, what I am saying, is that if Newt effectively destroys the GOP by becoming the main voice against capitolization, he may serve himself, but will destroy many dreams for many Americans.

[alanmolstad]

My view of this situation is this :


It''s a ****ing contest now....

not just between Mitt and Newt....But also between Newt and Rush.


Over the last few days Newt had to back-off from a few things he said about Mitt's past going into the NH primary.

The reason for this?
The only reason Newt had to back-off of his more wild attacks, is that Newt ticked-off Rush.

Rush was hammering on Newt very hard for a few days there, and this showed up in the lower and lower polling numbers that Newt saw happening to him.

So My view is that Newt's lower polling right now is the direct result of being hammered on by Rush.

and.....
Mitt's people have seen this, and so this has been noticed at the top of Mitt's campaign ..

The lesson there was real clear for everyone to learn from.

......Now, why did Rush get upset?
Rush has correctly seen something in the future debates between Obama and Mitt that is a very big problem.

I believe that Rush sees that the economy will be recovering by this time next year, and all the credit will be going to Obama.
So all of the advantage Mitt's supporters always wanted to use to brag up Mitt (Mitt'''s past of turning things around in business), is going to be moot.

Now we all know that Obama is going to attack Mitt on some of the business deals that Mitt made in the past....thats a given.


That also is something that Mitt can and has defended himself over easy enough.

The different now is that Obama can say, "Even members of your own party declared your actions as being wrong!"
and "Let me quote to you what high members of your own party have said about your actions..."

There is no way around this ....

The moment someone points out that even members of your own Party think you are wrong, you more or less have ended the argument and proven your point to the people listening.

Rush knows all this...

Rush knows that Newt is not only supporting the Dem's current argument, Newt is actually building up a far better future argument that Obama can use.

[alanmolstad]

Today's news....

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012...litting-claim/



It seems that we are not the only ones talking about such a story....

[BigJulie]

Originally Posted by alanmolstad

Today's news....

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012...litting-claim/



It seems that we are not the only ones talking about such a story....

Yeah, but it appears from this article not to support the idea that people stay in the race to help another candidate. I don't think Huckabee had it right as both others deny it. I think Thompson stayed in the race because there was a small hope he could still win. I think that is what the candidates are doing now.

Mitt stays in because he is in the lead.

Paul stays in because he has come in second or third both times.

Santorum stays in because in one state he had a good showing.

Huntsman stays in because in one state he had a good showing.

Rick Perry should be out, but it is believed he is one that has enough $$ to get through and so he may have a good showing in S.C. and thereby, be in as good as position as Santorum or Huntsman.

Newt stays in because of his ego. LOL!

[alanmolstad]

The way it seems to work is like this....

You stall an investigation into presidential wrongdoing when asked , and you get to ride in the Space Shuttle.

You drop out of a primary when asked and you get to become Sec of State.

You stay in a primary to split a vote when asked and you get named an Amb***ador.

[BigJulie]

Originally Posted by alanmolstad

The way it seems to work is like this....

You stall an investigation into presidential wrongdoing when asked , and you get to ride in the Space Shuttle.

You drop out of a primary when asked and you get to become Sec of State.

You stay in a primary to split a vote when asked and you get named an Amb***ador.

Ahhh, so you don't believe either McCain or Thompson when they both deny that they conversed to split the vote?

[alanmolstad]

Originally Posted by BigJulie

Ahhh, so you don't believe either McCain or Thompson when they both deny that they conversed to split the vote?

I would not believe any of them guys should they be standing on a stack of bibles a mile high.

[alanmolstad]

here is a website from 4 years ago that shows us that our topic is not new, and that even back at the time there was this feeling among conservatives that Fred was in it just to split the vote....

http://archive.redstate.com/stories/...y_in_the_race/


go down and check out posts numbered #15 and #16

where you see that what we are talking about today actually was a real concern at the time back then too..

[BigJulie]

Originally Posted by alanmolstad

here is a website from 4 years ago that shows us that our topic is not new, and that even back at the time there was this feeling among conservatives that Fred was in it just to split the vote....

http://archive.redstate.com/stories/...y_in_the_race/


go down and check out posts numbered #15 and #16

where you see that what we are talking about today actually was a real concern at the time back then too..

What??? Just because people are talking about it, does not in any way support that Fred stayed in the race to help McCain. Both of them denied it. Your only support really is that you think they are l.iars?????

I say, men have bigger egos then that and do not go into a race to lose. Show me that man who gives up the first chance he has and I will show you someone who never entered the race to begin with.

[alanmolstad]

We are not talking about guys who know this is their only chance...

The guys we speak of know full well they have no chance.

I mean, theses guys can count like the rest of us...

There is not the slightest doubt in their minds that staying in the race at this point is pointless, and will serve to only split the conservative vote.

This is nothing new to them....
As I have pointed out, this is how we ended up with McCain last time too.

4 years ago at this moment in the race the concern the conservatives had going into the SC primary was that because there were several conservatives in the race to pick from, and only one liberal, that the conservatives would split up their votes, and the one lone liberal would be able to sneak-out a win in SC and at that point no one will be able to catch up.

This is why Mitt lost 4 years ago against McCain,
And why we ended up with a guy leading the ticket that was not supported by the conservatives of the party, and so was not able to get elected.


The same concerns that the conservatives had 4 years ago are still around.

The conservatives have too many names in the race going into the SC primary, The vote is going to be split, and a more liberal guy will once again sneak-out a victory without the support of the whole conservative wing of the Party