from a political perspective, I dont have a problem voting for a Mormon like Mitt.

[alanmolstad]

Where did Mitt fail?

Lets review:
Mitt out spent everyone, and after a solid performance in NH Mitt came into the Sc Primary ready to make it 3 in a row and end this right here and now.

The only guy that was close to Mitt in the polls had just been dragged in the mud by his ex-wife, and the whole country was talking about what a **** husband he was...

So, how did Mitt end up getting so spanked?



I think it came down to 2 moments over the past week where we can see Mitt **** his lead though incompetence.


#1 - the debate.
Newt did ok in the debate handling the "open marriage/ex-wife " issue, and Mitt cant do anything about that.

But where Mitt totally screwed up during the debate was over the question of his own tax returns.
When challenged to follow in his own father's footsteps and act in the same manner with the tax return issue, Mitt dropped the ball.


It had to make even his strongest supporters groan when they watched Mitt act like he had something to hide with his income tax return.

This just was a game-changing moment in the SC primary.

#2 - The other moment when Mitt failed, was when Mitt once again refused to be part of the pro-Life forum.

Mitt ended up being represented by an "empty chair" at the one place where he could have stood up for himself and gotten the conservatives to hear him out.

All the other guys in the race where there.
Newt used the pro-life forum to brag about his own history supporting the pro-life cause.

Mitt's names was dragged in the mud, and because Mitt had decided to not be there to defend himself, the attacks made against him sunk in in the minds of the conservatives there.

Mitt's lack of participation once again pointed out that Mitt simply does not share in our conservative views the way we do.





So the debate, and the empty chair are what caused Mitt to drop in the polls.


Time will tell now how this is handled by Mitt's staff in Florida?
Will changes be made?
Will the things that caused Mitt to drop down in SC be fixed in Florida?

[BigJulie]

Alan,

This has been interesting for me to watch as well. I agree that the two Rick's looked like they were in training. I like Santorum enough that I hope he comes back in another election. I think more time and more experience is going to be his friend.

That said, let's look at the other two candidates---Mitt and Newt. This is how I see them stacking up.

Mitt
Pros:
Good leadership abilities
Proven record of turning things around
Good education and understands financial/economical issues
Is able to work in a state of democrats and get things moving
Good values
Proven tract record of conservative voting when it comes to pro-life and gay marriage.
Has made money in the business sector and therefore understands the business sector and how employers employ and why--what helps, what hurts.

Cons:
More moderate when it comes to economical/financial issues. (This is looked at as a pro in some people's minds.)
Doesn't see taxes as the great evil.
Hasn't released his tax records yet.
Used to stand for pro-abortion and then changed.
Used to stand for climate change and then changed.

Now, I look at Newt:

Pros:
He is a really good debater.
Knows his history well.
Has been in leadership and been successful at times.
Stands for conservative issues at times.

Cons:
Was sited for ethics violations and fined (but the books have not been opened as to why and legally can't be leaving everyone in question for what he did.)
Was speaker of the house but booted by his own party for poor leadership.
Has been liberal on several issues and then changed including climate change.
Is morally corrupt in regards to his personal life.
Lobbied for Freddie Mac when Freddie Mac was in the process of destroying our fnancial sector.
Does not think before he speaks.

Now, it appears to me that those who do not trust Mitt, do not trust him on two issues---his past pro-abortion stance and his lack of giving his tax records when they were asked for.

And those who trust Newt have been able to overlook his unethical behavior in the House, his unethical behavior in his personal life, his unethical behavior after he left congress, his flip-flopping on liberal issues as well, and his lack of personal restraint in his comments.

Does this seem rational to you?

To me it reminds me too much of this comment "better that one man should perish than a whole nation dwindle in unbelief."

[alanmolstad]

So now the election turns to Florida...

Everyone has this idea that Florida might end this one way or the other...

it might.
I have always felt that Mitt wants this to be totally finished by Florida, but right now we are looking into a way longer election.

Mitt is only 1 for 3 right now...and his polling numbers get lower and lower every time I check.

Lets face it....Mitt is on a sinking ship.

And the Republican Party as a whole is starting to look way down range to the chance it might have to do this whole thing over at an "Open Convention" .

An Open Convention, where all the names on the ballot are chucked out the window and we pick someone who is not even talked about right now!

In SC what we learned for sure is that regardless of the weakness of his opponent, Mitt will NEVER in a million years get the kind of support from the conservatives he would need to take on Obama in the fall.

at this point it's too late for Mitt do do anything about this.
That ship has sailed,
The conservatives have spoken loudly

Now add to this something to keep in the back of your mind...
The winner of the SC primary always wins the ticket.



and....


Every Republican that gets elected President always wins SC in his Primary.


This means that history and tradition are now solidly behind Newt!

[alanmolstad]

so Newt is all set to take the nomination away from Mitt.

Now I think we all know that putting all our hopes for getting rid of Obama onto Newt to carry is , well,,,,almost crazy of us, so I suspect that the SC victory of Newt is just a "Stop Mitt" victory.

yet the party is starting to see clearly now that Mitt lacks the needed Party support he has to have to beat Obama.

so what to do?.....what to do?

This is why the leadership of both the liberal republicans and the conservatives are all talking about perhaps starting over and picking a new guy at the convention.

I think everyone knew from the start that Mitt/Perry/Newt/Paul were not the best team we should have fielded into the primary, and an Open Convention might be a way to make sure a new guy leads the ticket that all the conservatives can support, that don't also come with the baggage of a real big mouth.

[BigJulie]

Someone completely new? But who??

This I know---I will never vote for Newt. He is way to corrupt for my taking and is not better than Obama. As I said, I would be replacing a union thug for a lobbying crook. I then have to toss a coin on which would be better and personally, if we can't have a politician that even somewhat cares about the people, maybe one who has a marriage in tact is at least a role model.

[alanmolstad]

Originally Posted by BigJulie

Someone completely new? But who??

I have no clue....


but trust me, if.....and its a big IF it works out that newt actually gets enough votes in a few of the next State primaries, then I got to tell you right now......

Names will start to be dropped around the Republican media and republican leadership.


heres the thing....
The Party is not crazy. Everyone knows putting all our hopes onto Newt is more like playing Political Russian Roulette than we care to admit.

The next State to vote is Florida.
Mitt has sunk million$ into beating the field in Florida.
Mitt knows now he has to come up with a knock-out punch in Florida.

If Mitt wins big?
Then because of the way the States line up for the next few primaries to vote, Mitt is going to be on his "Home turf"
After Florida and into the next month we go to a lot of States that have huge Mormon populations....so Mitt should do well.

But doing well in a Mormon State is going to be pointless if Mitt has a loss in Florida.

if mitt has another loss in Florida, that from then on he will be seen as just "The Mormon guy" and there simply are very few reasons to think he has a chance to beat Obama after that.

Mitt needs Florida.

If he gets a big win, you can relax....its in the bag at that point.

If Mitt comes in 2nd?
Then get ready to start hearing more about an Open Convention, and also that names we never heard of before will then suddenly start turning up in the conversation...

[alanmolstad]

Julie, check mail

[BigJulie]

I am wondering if Mitt represents a divide that is occuring in the conservative side of the ticket.

The south is heavy with evangelicals, but I think a lot of people are getting sick of their holier than thou at***udes while they show no sign of rationalism in their pick. Anyone paying attention can see that Newt is a ticking time bomb. When your own party kicks you to the curb, it is hard to think that he would be able to lead them effectively...this does not even start to address the ethics violations, etc.

The other side is less socially conservative, but more fiscally conservative. This might be where the blue dogs and the conservative middles are starting to meet. They are like me and would rather see someone who is more go than show (as Newt is.)

The problem then for conservatives is that the "christian right" no longer represents the rest of us.

[BigJulie]

Originally Posted by alanmolstad

Julie, check mail

I have and will wait to see what happens in that thread.

[alanmolstad]

Originally Posted by BigJulie

I am wondering if Mitt represents a divide .

oh yes...big time.
But this divide has always been around my Party for as long as i can remember.

there is the - Economic Conservative.
and then there is the - Social Conservative.


and at times the party has not been big enough for the both of them.

[alanmolstad]

Originally Posted by BigJulie

I have and will wait to see what happens in that thread.

By the way, Im a big supporter as you know for not getting lost in endless bickering around here by use of the IGNORE list.

I always suggest people, regardless of their religion, make use of the ignore list when they bump into people that dont know how to post right.

so on one or two of the other topics running, you may see that Im not responding to many of the posters then and there, and reason is I can no longer see their comments on my computer screen because I have added their names long ago to my Ignore list....LOL

[BigJulie]

Originally Posted by alanmolstad

oh yes...big time.
But this divide has always been around my Party for as long as i can remember.

there is the - Economic Conservative.
and then there is the - Social Conservative.


and at times the party has not been big enough for the both of them.

Okay---so my point is, that the evangelical right represents the "social conservative" and that Mitt Romney represents the "economic conservative"---but then why on earth woud the "social conservatives" back someone like Newt who is a chameleon and who everyone I talk to sees a somewhat of a sociopath. He seems to do whatever he wants whenever he wants and leaves people in his wake. Are they so flattered by his talk that they completely overlook who he is not only personally, but politically?

[BigJulie]

Originally Posted by alanmolstad

By the way, Im a big supporter as you know for not getting lost in endless bickering around here by use of the IGNORE list.

I always suggest people, regardless of their religion, make use of the ignore list when they bump into people that dont know how to post right.

so on one or two of the other topics running, you may see that Im not responding to many of the posters then and there, and reason is I can no longer see their comments on my computer screen because I have added their names long ago to my Ignore list....LOL

I've had Russ on ignore forever. I should put Brian there just for the number of insults he gives per post.

[BigJulie]

One last question. Why would a social conservative vote for Newt---someone who speaks of social conservatism, but has never lived it--in their personal life, their public life, etc. I mean, even the democrats got rid of John Edwards based on infidelity alone. I think they learned they do not want another Clinton in the house.

[alanmolstad]

Originally Posted by BigJulie

-but then why on earth woud the "social conservatives" back someone like Newt ?

slow down.....think back.....think back to what this race has been known for more than anything else....

The conservatives have not raced over to support Newt from the start remember?

first the conservatives were behind one person, then the next...then the next..

Every name in this race cant say that they never had a chance to get the support of the conservatives.

They all had their chance!

They all had a chance to step up when the bright lights turned on them.

But the problem in this election is that while we had a nice big cl*** of good conservatives running , none managed to rise to the calling when the time came.

It turned out to be not the best team of conservatives to pick from.


They each had their moment to impress because Mitt had already burned a lot of bridges between him and conservatives.

From the beginning Mitt was in trouble with the conservatives.
His flip-flops on abortion
health care mandates
his religion
His money
his clear distance to the lives of normal people (The $10,000 bet).

now add the fact that during this election, the pro-Life movement had had two huge forums, where all the other people in the race showed up to answer questions, and both times Mitt's empty chair was there to show what he thinks.....

So from the beginning Mitt was in trouble with the conservatives, and he has only made things worse for himself as the race went along.

So why are the conservatives gathering around Newt now when everyone in the Party knows Newt has so many flaws?


Why Newt of all people?

With all his known flaws, and the real likelihood that he has other problems that are yet to come out, why go with Newt now?




that's an easy answer....


Newt is the last man standing.

[BigJulie]

Originally Posted by alanmolstad

From the beginning Mitt was in trouble with the conservatives.
His flip-flops on abortion
health care mandates
his religion
His money
his clear distance to the lives of normal people (The $10,000 bet).


Newt is the last man standing.

Okay, let's compare apples to apples:

Newt flip-flops on many issues and even more recently.
Newt has supported health care mandates.
Newt changed from evanglical to catholic--but what does his religion matter as he obviously does not live it.
Newt took 1.6 million from Freddie Mac
Newt has a clear distance from normal people as most people do not live the way he does morally or financially.

Add to this his ethical violations, the fact that his own party booted him, and the fact that he makes John Edwards look like a social conservative

and now, answer me honestly, why do people support Newt? It makes not rational sense at all.

[alanmolstad]

Originally Posted by BigJulie

and now, answer me honestly, why do people support Newt? It makes not rational sense at all.

again...
Newt is the last man standing.....

Rick needed to come in 2nd to stay in this hunt....
But Rick was 3rd I think?....and 3rd in the one state you were counting on to win is not good enough to have any reason at all to stick around.

ron Paul is going to be sticking around for a while as his stronger States are not coming up in line for a while...so paul will be in the news off and on for a while yet.

Newt is simply the last man standing.
Newt had a great debate, right at the time that Mitt had a bad debate...

all the flaws with newt are a moot point.
the only thing Newt has to be from now on to win it all, is "Not Mitt"

Nothing else matters at this point...all the flaws people might see in him are not revelant to why he is going to get their vote...

Newt is going to get votes because he is simply not Mitt at this point....so listing his flaws is not addressing the reason for his win.


Newt won SC, (and no one gets to be President without winning SC ), and he won SC because he was simply the last guy standing.

and THAT also is the reason that the same people who have voted for him in SC, also would support an Open Convention where all these guys could be dumped, and a whole new list of names picked to lead the ticket.

[BigJulie]

Originally Posted by alanmolstad

again...
Newt is the last man standing.....

Rick needed to come in 2nd to stay in this hunt....
But Rick was 3rd I think?....and 3rd in the one state you were counting on to win is not good enough to have any reason at all to stick around.

ron Paul is going to be sticking around for a while as his stronger States are not coming up in line for a while...so paul will be in the news off and on for a while yet.

Newt is simply the last man standing.
Newt had a great debate, right at the time that Mitt had a bad debate...

all the flaws with newt are a moot point.
the only thing Newt has to be from now on to win it all, is "Not Mitt"

Nothing else matters at this point...all the flaws people might see in him are not revelant to why he is going to get their vote...

Newt is going to get votes because he is simply not Mitt at this point....so listing his flaws is not addressing the reason for his win.


Newt won SC, (and no one gets to be President without winning SC ), and he won SC because he was simply the last guy standing.

and THAT also is the reason that the same people who have voted for him in SC, also would support an Open Convention where all these guys could be dumped, and a whole new list of names picked to lead the ticket.

But Newt makes Mitt look like saint. That is why I don't get it. Newt has done all the things that Mitt is accused of and worse.

The last guy standing?? He fell a long time ago. To me, it appears that S.C. likes what it hears more than what it sees. He sounds good, therefore he must be good.

[alanmolstad]

Newt is the last guy left to vote for.

all the others have had their moment to shine...

Newt is just the last guy left after all the others turned out to not be the guy the conservatives were willing to vote for.

You can go right down the list, and there just was something that didnt 'set' right with them.

No matter how conservative they were, we have watched each of them turn out to have just not what it takes to get the conservatives to support them in the numbers needed..


newt?........Newt is just the last name on the list after all the others have been rejected.


simply put, There is no one left to vote for.

[alanmolstad]

look at this from a conservative point of view...

go over the list of names we had to pick from...looking for someone who seem to connect with conservative concerns that we were looking to see.

Jon Huntsman....never caught on, and had some non-conservative views...did poorly in the debates.
Did not seem ready to be on the stage.


Michele Bachmann, started out looking good, but was just not able to connect with people..ran the worst race in Iowa, seemed to not want to run at all near the end...
Very poor in the debates,,,

Cain.....mostly was just fun to listen to,,but never was on anyone's list for long.

Rick Perry....said good things when someone woke him up , but mostly just was not ready to run...worst debate ever I think.

Ron Paul...crazy

Mitt Romney,... flipped, and the empty chair...

Rick Santorum....might make a good president, in about 20 years...


so guess who is the last man standing?......


We may not like this situation, but when you go down the list from a conservative point of view, the one thing you notice is that this was not the best team to pick from....

[alanmolstad]

So what Im saying is that you can get a clear idea as to why Newt won SC by just remembering that Newt was never the 1st pick of the Republican Conservatives.

From the point of view of a true Conservatives, when you looked at this team of players at the start of this election you just didnt see the type of quality you would have liked to have seen.

But as the election has went along, each player on our team has had their moment to carry the ball.
Every name on the list has had their time at being number 1 or 2 in the polls.
No name on our list can claim we never gave them a chance.
They all have had their chance to impress people.

But lets face it, from a conservative voter's point of view, they all just didnt have what they needed .
go down the list and one by one they got checked off our list for one reason or another.

They are all good people Im sure.
But they just seemed to conservatives to be missing something.

so we checked them off the list until we finally come down to it in the SC primary.

The SC Primary is where the Conservatives were going to finally speak.

For we have always known that in SC we are going to find out what name on our list can get the needed conservatives to support them in the general election against Obama?

That name now in known.

Newt is the guy.
Newt is the guy that the conservatives will support against Obama in the fall, not so much based on Newt, as it is based on the fact that there is no one left in the game to pick from at this point.

For the republican conservatives, Newt is the last guy standing out there on the field to vote for.


History has shown us that you cant win the Republican nomination without winning the SC primary
.Newt won the SC Primary, so Newt can be expected to have the needed support of conservatives should he lead the ticket against Obama.

[alanmolstad]

Todays news....

I see that within the next few hours that Mitt will put out his tax returns....

a little late, but it should get that whole issue off the table.
The "I dont know" answer was one of the main reasons he lost in SC.....

[BigJulie]

I have been reading the news---how much Mitt makes to how much Obama makes to how much Newt makes. When you get into the millions, it seems that all are in the top .01% or so.

That said, here is an interesting Youtube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNJZr...&feature=share

[alanmolstad]

Originally Posted by BigJulie

I have been reading the news---how much Mitt makes to how much Obama makes to how much Newt makes. When you get into the millions, it seems that all are in the top .01% or so.

That said, here is an interesting Youtube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNJZr...&feature=share

a very good video.

Did they get the stump out?....sorta stops a bit early...LOL

[BigJulie]

Originally Posted by alanmolstad

a very good video.

Did they get the stump out?....sorta stops a bit early...LOL

I bet they did--as the pictures show it on the verge of being out. As noted, it was just a person who lived at he house with a cheap camera.

What did you think of the last debate?