from a political perspective, I dont have a problem voting for a Mormon like Mitt.

[alanmolstad]

Originally Posted by BigJulie

What did you think of the last debate?

Im at either Kumdo cl***, kettelbell cl***, or Kendo cl***.....so I am going to be relying on the drudge report to keep me up to speed on the build-up to the Florida primary.

so far.....Im getting that it was a sleeper....

Im also amused that Newt now says he will no longer be in a debate if the audience can't cheer.....

[alanmolstad]

I think the sun flare is messing up my internet tonight...

[BigJulie]

The more I learn of Newt, the more I know I will never vote for him. Should it come down to Obama or Newt, I will sit out the election. How can I vote in someone who is as corrupt as he is, or as narcissistic as he is. FDR was a socialist and we recovered---but would we ever recover from someone so morally corrupt?

[alanmolstad]

Originally Posted by BigJulie

The more I learn of Newt,...

I noticed that the Dems leadership is saying that Newt will never be president.
That "They know things" about Newt.

To me this is a rather interesting thing to say.

I mean, from the dem's point of view, if they had some killer information on Newt, would they not want Newt to win the nomination?.....then later in the general election spring their trap?

Telling the republicans now that we "Better not elect Newt" almost seems like they would rather run against Mitt than run against Newt.

It smells funny to me....





It's like if two teams were playing football, would one team tell the other team that "You better not run play number 7 because we know how to beat that play"

If the other team really did know how to beat play number 7, would they not hope that is the play that gets called the most?

[alanmolstad]

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/20...their_own_base



One of the best things Rush has come up with in a while.

Rush really understands the conservatives and our current mood.

[alanmolstad]

as we get close to the Florida vote, I think I should drop back to some of the first things I wrote on what Florida might mean, to see how my views now compare?

[BigJulie]

Originally Posted by alanmolstad

One of the best things Rush has come up with in a while.

Rush really understands the conservatives and our current mood.

My own conclusions regarding Rush Limbaugh--

the way he has ademantly been backing Newt and how he defended Herman Cain---I think Rush must believe there is a separation between the way they live in their personal life and the way you live in your public life. So, a man can lie point blank to his wife regarding what he is doing, etc. but be an "good" politician. He also defended Cain and saw the woman accusing Cain as a "bimbo" etc.

What I finally came away with (and I admit I may be wrong) is that Rush Limbaugh is an adulterer as well. He therefore does not see a problem with this---he can be a great radio show commentator and adulterer, why not Newt be a great president and adulterer.

Now, before you go on about all the great men in the world who have been adulterers---that is not my point. My point is that it seems that adulterers tend to defend each other.

So, how do the women feel about this in my circles? They are sick of listening to these men make excuses for each other. Women's suffrage may mean more than just the right to vote, but also the right to vote for something other then the typical "old boys club."

[BigJulie]

After writing my last post, I decided to investigate a little to see if I was right regarding my "hunch" about Rush Limbaugh. What I found is that he has been married four times. Case closed. Rush has a crush on Newt because they are like kind.

[alanmolstad]

If we were electing a person for "Husband of the year", then Newt would not get my vote...

If were were electing "Bible teacher of the year", then Mitt would have to drop out.

If we were electing
"Woman of the year" then all the men in this race would have to drop out.

If we were electing "The guy the most like Alan" then none of these guys would be even close.


But we are not doing such...


In the Republican Primary elections we conservatives are voting on the voice that reflects our views the best, the strongest, the most clearly reflective of our own views.

The only reason Newt has the spotlight is that he is the last person standing that can hold the conservative flag.

There is simply no one left.

Newt has outlived the pack of conservatives in this election.

But Newt has also about run out of cash.
Mitt has millions left in the bank and is going into a part of this election where loads of cash will make it all but impossible for anyone to catch him.

This is why for Newt it all comes down to Florida.
If Newt wins or comes in a close 2nd he will be in a position to hold on all the way to the convention.
If on the other hand, Newt has a big loss in Florida then it will not look good for him long, and over the next month it may be hard for Newt to win anything more.


From Mitt's point of view, if Mitt can win BIG in Florida he will have this in the bag.
A big win would cause all the money in the Party to come flowing in to him.
A big win in Florida will close the door to Newt and bring all of the Party to swing over to support him.

however, a loss in Florida will cause the Party as a whole to finally start to take serious the idea that none of the people in this race have a chance against Obama in the fall, and so we are going to need someone else to get into this race....at that point the need for an "Open Convention" may be so clear to everyone in the Party that this whole Primary Election up until now might be forgotten.

[alanmolstad]

The Open Con...?
so what might happen is this:


If Newt wins Florida there will be a push to "Free the delegates" and allow all of the people at the Republican convention to vote for whomever they wanted to and not be stuck voting for the person who won their State primary.

This would me that anyone could enter this election and get the Party Nomination.

This is why Newt just has to be close in Florida or over the next month.....just get close enough to show everyone that the Party is not going to ever support Mitt strong enough to beat Obama.

a close 2nd would do that for Newt.

a close 2nd place over the next month in a few States would cause people to see that we should 'free the delegates" and allow the convention to pick the person to lead the ticket.
It's called the "Open Convention" and it would be the most fun thing to watch in my lifetime!

[alanmolstad]

From my own point of view, it has always been a poor field of names to pick from from the start.

Before even iowa I looked at the list of names in this election and i did not see anyone I wanted to support.

I looked at the list and I not only did not see a person that i felt had a chance against Obama, but I also did not see a name that I was all that excited to vote for at all.

all the names on the list look like good people to run for VP,,,,but not to actually lead the ticket.

This is why right now I can see the merit of an Open Convention...
It might allow a name to enter this race that i felt had a real chance of getting the needed support of the conservatives like myself and also beating Obama in the fall.

We shall have to see what happens in Florida and in the month after Florida.

If Mitt comes on strong in Florida and over the next month then all the talk of an Open Convention will dry up and go away.
But if Mitt again stumbles in Florida then at that point even if Newt drops out of the race later , there might be a strong push to open up the convention to everyone.


The weird thing is....Mitt has destroyed the chance that Rick has of winning anything....But I think Rick is staying in this election to see what happens out of Florida.
Rick knows at this point he dont have a chance, but also knows that if Mitt has a bad finish in Florida it could mean an "Open Convention"...and that would mean Rick still could win this in the end and get the nomination of the Party.

Rick just has to stay in the hunt for another week or so.....

So it's all up to the Florida vote, and how that looks to everyone later.
If Mitt shows poorly in Florida, then i expect Rick to be the first to suggest the open convention idea.

[alanmolstad]

it all comes down to the next few hours before Florida votes...

Now is the moment when if you got the cash you got to spend it.
and if you don't got the cash its going to show.

after Florida we will have a name to lead the ticket, or we will have the biggest push to open the convention up like we have never seen in the country in a long-long time!

Right now, there are no names being suggested to take Mitt's place.

If Mitt wins, then you never will hear a squeak out of the Party about the convention, or about other names being put up to lead the ticket.

But if Mitt should lose, or if Mitt wins but it just too close for comfort, then its going to be shocking how a new name is going to be on the lips of everyone a day or so later...LOL

I dont know the future, so i cant say right now if Mitt can win big in Florida or not....

The polls suggest the Mitt is going to win by about 10 points, but we shall see.

[BigJulie]

Originally Posted by alanmolstad

If we were electing a person for "Husband of the year", then Newt would not get my vote...

I wasn't looking at his record as only a husband---although, for a woman, it is disturbing to think that this man could be such an out-right, bold face l.iar (as you would have to be to have an affair on your wife) and that not send up any red flags for anyone.

No, his lack of moral values does not stop in the home--he also was cited for ethical violations, etc.

So, I think to myself---usually, Rush would be ripping up such a candidate---and yet he is not. That is why I decided to do a little investigating. As Rush has gone from one wife to another, I can see that Newt is just justification for his own failed life.

The similiarities between Rush and Newt are astounding...both men married multiple times, both men have an arrogance that is unusual--big egos is an understatement, etc.

[alanmolstad]

Originally Posted by BigJulie

--he also was cited for ethical violations, etc.

.

So far the so-called ethical violations have all been about house rules all dealing with a cl*** he was teaching to students and if that cl*** should be under once set of tax schedule or a different one.

I remember they investigated him for a long-long time and ended up giving him a fine that simply helped pay for the money it took to investigate him.

Now if there was ever a real crime?.....something like running a stop sign, parking in a tow-away area, etc, then I never heard about that.'


This is why no one actually cares what Newt did on that score.

Breaking a House rule on such a minor matter is a moot point and has nothing to do with why a conservative might seek to vote for him.

Lets remember, the ONLY REASON that Newt is still kicking is that he is the "Last man standing"

Simply put, there is no one else the conservatives have left to pick from.


This is also why if the conservatives once again come out in numbers in Florida to support Newt they way that did in SC, that this would fire-up talk Radio on shows like Rush into being all about dumping this whole primary election so far, and opening up the convention to new names.

This is why the next 24 hours are the whole game for Newt and Mitt.

If Newt wins, or comes in a close 2nd, then Mitt is going to have to face the facts that he will never get the support from the conservatives that he needs to beat Obama. So there would be no point to his going on in this election.

AND....that the Leadership of the Republican Party will start to come up with a PLAN-"B" where they ask both Mitt and Newt to step aside at the convention.



OR..... If Mitt wins in Florida and wins big, then Newt will be shown the door by the Party leadership, and even Rush would start to look down the road to the fall and helping Mitt in beating Obama.


I dont know what is going to happen.
SC gave us a strong sign that Mitt simply never warmed up to the conservatives of his own Party and that without their support he might as well give up right now.

According to tradition, the person who had won in SC (Newt) will win the nomination.
This tradition is not by accident.
The reason this is always so is that SC is a very good way to see what person actually stands a chance?

Right now, it looks like the only real person in this race that actually might have a chance of beating Obama is Newt...

Even with all the baggage that Newt has with him in his past, Newt still has what it takes to beat Obama, and clearly Mitt lacks it.

[alanmolstad]

From the beginning of this topic I have been talking about how this all has to come to an ending at Florida.

Florida was always the end on the line for the people in this race.

At the beginning of this topic I pointed out how I predicted that Mitt would win in Florida, and needed to win in Florida.
i believed from the start that Mitt would build his whole election around the goal of winning Florida and thus ending the race for the nomination here.

Lets review:
I said that mitt could lose Iowa and it would not matter.
Mitt won, then LOST in Iowa , but I was correct in that it did not matter.


I said that Mitt needed to win in NH and he did win there.

I said that given his religion and past fip-flops that while he still needed to win in SC, all he really needed to do was come in a close 2nd.
However Mitt got SPANKED in Sc and that is the real problem here.

The results of SC were to push all the chips into Florida from both sides.

Had SC been close, had Mitt done a bit better there, then Florida would be a moot point and Newt would be not even an issue right now.
But SC gave us the wake-up call that the Conservatives are never going to support Mitt.

My predictions as to what the different results of Florida may mean:
If Mitt wins big?.....then Newt is doomed.
If Mitt wins and it's close?....Then other names will start to be talked about getting into this race. And that there is going to be a month or two where the results of different state primaries well be never really enough to even tell who is in the lead or not?
We could look at the next two months of bitter fighting with no hint if anyone is actually winning or not?
If Mitt comes in 2nd?....Then Mitt is going to face a call for an Open Convention.


I cant predict the future, I dont know what name on our list will be called the 'winner" in Florida.

But I can say that I have been paying attention to the hints dropped by the Republican Leadership over the last 24 hours, and there is a plan already in place if Newt wins or comes in a close 2nd in Florida.

That plan will call for a lot of IOU's to be cashed in.....
Phone calls to be made by even both President Bush's ......
and to all the conservative Talk Radio guys......
and to the big money donators to both Mitt and Newt.

At that point I think we are going to see things happen we don't even dream about right now as possible.

[alanmolstad]

right now the polls Im looking at have Mitt winning in Florida by 11%

This 11% now becomes the guidline we will use to deciude who is actually the winner or not?

If Mitt gets a win by way more than 11% we can say he really "won"

If Mitt gets just a win by the expected 11% then while we can say he "won", it's really more or less even to what was expected, and therefore a wash.

If Mitt gets less than 11% then even if he gets the win, he still will look like he lost and that Newt won.


So Julie, I know you want Mitt to come out of Florida without Newt hanging around anymore, so I would look for about a 17% or higher victory over Newt as being what you are looking for.

a 20% - 25% or better victory by Mitt would doom Newt.

But if Mitt wins with say 11% to 15%?.....then this is going to last another 2 months easy.

I do not expect Mitt to lose in Florida, and I never have.
But I dont know the future too, so there is Newt's 'chance' to consider.

If you are watching the results of Florida come in and they show Mitt behind?....then get ready for this election going for another 2 months the same way it has been going....and that Mitt might be asked to step aside at some point.

However even if Newt wins in Florida, I would not expect him to lead the ticket against Obama in the fall....

[alanmolstad]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHpCI...c9FAAAAAAAAGAA

[BigJulie]

Originally Posted by alanmolstad

right now the polls Im looking at have Mitt winning in Florida by 11%

This 11% now becomes the guidline we will use to deciude who is actually the winner or not?

If Mitt gets a win by way more than 11% we can say he really "won"

If Mitt gets just a win by the expected 11% then while we can say he "won", it's really more or less even to what was expected, and therefore a wash.

If Mitt gets less than 11% then even if he gets the win, he still will look like he lost and that Newt won.


So Julie, I know you want Mitt to come out of Florida without Newt hanging around anymore, so I would look for about a 17% or higher victory over Newt as being what you are looking for.

a 20% - 25% or better victory by Mitt would doom Newt.

But if Mitt wins with say 11% to 15%?.....then this is going to last another 2 months easy.

I do not expect Mitt to lose in Florida, and I never have.
But I dont know the future too, so there is Newt's 'chance' to consider.

If you are watching the results of Florida come in and they show Mitt behind?....then get ready for this election going for another 2 months the same way it has been going....and that Mitt might be asked to step aside at some point.

However even if Newt wins in Florida, I would not expect him to lead the ticket against Obama in the fall....

I'm watching Florida...we shall see what happens.

[alanmolstad]

Originally Posted by alanmolstad

If Mitt gets a win by way more than 11% we can say he really "won"


So Julie, I know you want Mitt to come out of Florida without Newt hanging around anymore, so I would look for about a 17% or higher victory over Newt as being what you are looking for.


But if Mitt wins with say 11% to 15%?.....then this is going to last another 2 months easy.

.

as the returns come in it looks like Mitt will beat Newt by around 15%

This is a clear victory for Mitt, but not enough to end Newt's run...

However it is more than enough to end Rick's run.
I expect to hear that Rick is suspending his run in the next few days.

As for Ron Paul?
Ron never tried to do anything in Florida, and so he likely will stay in it until we can get to some States where he expects to do better.

Newt is likely going to stay in this for another month or so now.
He lost big in Florida, but just not by enough to drive him out of the race yet.

[BigJulie]

Originally Posted by alanmolstad

as the returns come in it looks like Mitt will beat Newt by around 15%

This is a clear victory for Mitt, but not enough to end Newt's run...

However it is more than enough to end Rick's run.
I expect to hear that Rick is suspending his run in the next few days.

As for Ron Paul?
Ron never tried to do anything in Florida, and so he likely will stay in it until we can get to some States where he expects to do better.

Newt is likely going to stay in this for another month or so now.
He lost big in Florida, but just not by enough to drive him out of the race yet.

I think even if Newt lost by 17%, his ego would prevent him from exiting the race--his concession speech almost sounded like he is planning on running as a third man in the race if he doesn't get the GOP.

I am not surprised that women are leaving him in droves. Men may think that a man is worth his salt after cheating on a wife, but women tend to know that the man you know at home is the true view of a man and if the woman ain't happy--then no one is going to be happy.

This country isn't a "good old boys" club anymore where the women are happy to let the men fool around and pretend that all is well.

[alanmolstad]

There are now 2 things left in doubt in this election....

Ron Paul has always been planning on a making his real showing in the 2nd half of the Primary, and so we are now just at the beginning of his actually run for the White House.

and....


Rick seems willing to try to out-live Newt.

I do not know where rick gets his money, but he has hung on now for a long time with really no hope of winning anything more.

at first I was thinking that it was just that he had a 'dream" of beating Mitt in Florida, but when we came out of SC with Rick clearly fading, i was a bit stumped as to why Rick would want to even show up in Florida?


But given the way Newt had now fell off the pace, I think Rick has spotted a opportunity for himself to jump in line ahead of Newt.

It comes down to raw money at this point.
Rick and New were out spent by Mitt's people from between 5 to 1, to in some markets 10 to 1....

In many of the next States headed to Super Tuesday (When I get to vote) we see that it only Mitt and Ron Paul have any boots-on-the-ground right now. This is a sign that regardless of the current battle between Newt and Rick for 2nd place, its not really going to matter much in the long run.

at this point,,,,,,the only last story to learn is what actually is the deal with Ron Paul in this election?

How much support does he actually have in the Western States?

Will he be able to bring his 'believers" to the polls in numbers that give him a real shot?


and.....at what point will Newt and Rick give it up?




oh, and one more thing....given the results of Florida I do not expect much more talk of an Open Convention at this point....

[BigJulie]

[QUOTE]

Originally Posted by alanmolstad

There are now 2 things left in doubt in this election....

Ron Paul has always been planning on a making his real showing in the 2nd half of the Primary, and so we are now just at the beginning of his actually run for the White House.

and....


Rick seems willing to try to out-live Newt.

I do not know where rick gets his money, but he has hung on now for a long time with really no hope of winning anything more.

at first I was thinking that it was just that he had a 'dream" of beating Mitt in Florida, but when we came out of SC with Rick clearly fading, i was a bit stumped as to why Rick would want to even show up in Florida?

I am considering sending money to Rick---I like him as my number two choice. I hope he sticks in there.

But given the way Newt had now fell off the pace, I think Rick has spotted a opportunity for himself to jump in line ahead of Newt.

It comes down to raw money at this point.
Rick and New were out spent by Mitt's people from between 5 to 1, to in some markets 10 to 1....

Yup, running for President takes years of preparation and financial support. If you don't have that--then there is no way you have a chance against Obama and his union machine.

In many of the next States headed to Super Tuesday (When I get to vote) we see that it only Mitt and Ron Paul have any boots-on-the-ground right now. This is a sign that regardless of the current battle between Newt and Rick for 2nd place, its not really going to matter much in the long run.

at this point,,,,,,the only last story to learn is what actually is the deal with Ron Paul in this election?

How much support does he actually have in the Western States?

He has a lot of support here and I am out West.

oh, and one more thing....given the results of Florida I do not expect much more talk of an Open Convention at this point....

It would be foolish to bring in a new-comer that late in the game.

[alanmolstad]

Originally Posted by BigJulie

Yup, running for President takes years of preparation and financial support. .

...

This is how Bush 1 and 2 and Dole and McCain and now Mitt have got the nomination....they all tried and came in 2nd, and then in the next election they had an organization up and running and a lot of names willing to send in cash.

This points us to both Newt and Rick....
They both seem now to be getting into a position to be in the lead at the start of the next election the way Mitt was in the lead at the start of this one.

Right now the whole Republican Primary has taught us one very clear thing....The Conservatives will not support Mitt....no matter what.

Everyone in the Party now sees this.
We all know that when it comes right down to it, the conservatives would vote for a lump of coal before they would vote for Mitt.

The other thing we know is that no Republican can win the White House without the full support of Conservatives.

so.....Knowing all this....we can look at Newt and Rick and see how they are both looking down the road to 4 years from now, and really wanting to be in the lead going into that election where there is no incumbent President.



So, from both Newt's and Rick's point of view....the best thing to happen is for them to try to set themselves up for 4 years from now, knowing that Mitt will lose to Obama because Mitt lacks conservative support .

[BigJulie]

Originally Posted by alanmolstad

...



Right now the whole Republican Primary has taught us one very clear thing....The Conservatives will not support Mitt....no matter what.

Yes, I get this---those ever faithful conservatives would rather have four more years of Obama than vote for someone who is not conservative enough. Yeah---that makes a lot of sense to me.

[alanmolstad]

Over the last 12 hours I have been reading a lot of comments by leading Republican Conservatives. and there is something afoot.


I think there is about to organize a push from many leading conservative media sources to get Newt to drop out...


No one can force Newt to drop out,,,but I think we are about to see a more united conservative front approach Newt....grab Newt's hat and coat, and point the way to the exit...
The truth is that from now on Newt really can do a lot of harm to the Party.
Newt has to start thinking about 4 years from now if Mitt should lose to Obama, and so Newt does not want to start burning the bridges he will need to cross later.

I think in the next few days some major Conservative voices like Rush will be dropping the hint that "Right now" would be a great time for Newt to thank everyone for supporting him, and calling a cab.